Sunday, October 25, 2026

Best of the Genea-Blogs -- Week of 18 to 24 October 2026

Scores of genealogy and family history bloggers write hundreds of posts every week about their research, their families, and their interests. I appreciate each one of them and their efforts.


My criteria for "Best of ..." are pretty simple - I pick posts that advance knowledge about genealogy and family history, address current genealogy issues, provide personal family history, are funny or are poignant. I don't list posts destined for most daily blog prompts or meme submissions (but I do include summaries of them), or my own posts.

Here are my picks for great reads from the genealogy blogs for this past week:
 








*  RootsMagic 12's AI Prompt Builder by Marcia Crawford Philbrick on Heartland Genealogy.



Here are pick posts by other geneabloggers this week:

*  Friday’s Family History Finds [23 October 2026] by Linda Stufflebean on Empty Branches on the Family Tree.

* This week’s crème de la crème -- October 24, 2026 by Gail Dever on Genealogy a la Carte.

* GenStack [24 October 2026] by Robin Stewart on Genealogy Matters.


Readers are encouraged to go to the blogs listed above and read their articles, and add the blogs to your Favorites, Feedly, another RSS feed, or email if you like what you read. Please make a comment to them also - all bloggers appreciate feedback on what they write.

Did I miss a great genealogy blog post? Tell me! I currently am reading posts from over 900 genealogy bloggers using Feedly, but I still miss quite a few it seems.

Read past Best of the Genea-Blogs posts here.

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Copyright (c) 2026, Randall J. Seaver


Please comment on this post on the website by clicking the URL above and then the "Comments" link at the bottom of each post. Share it on X, Facebook, or Pinterest using the icons below. Or contact me by email at randy.seaver@gmail.com. Please note that all comments are moderated and may not appear immediately.

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Chula Vista Genealogical Society Meeting on Wednesday, 28 October Features Sunny Jane Morton

 Wednesday, 28 October 2026, 12 noon PDT 

Chula Vista Genealogical Society 

General Meeting (in a Zoom Video Conference) 

"Tell Your Family Stories More Powerfully in PowerPoint"

by Sunny Jane Morton

Learn how PowerPoint software can help you create mini-documentaries of your family stories, with appealing visuals, images, video clips, transitions and text. This visually-rich presentation focuses on demonstrating what’s possible: an instruction-rich handout links to lots of resources for how to do it.

Sunny Jane Morton is the Editor of NGS Magazine; a Contributing Editor at Family Tree Magazine; and a past Editor of Ohio Genealogy News. She is co-author of How to Find Your Family History in U.S. Church Records, which received a book award from the National Genealogical Society, and author of Searching for Sisters: A Guide to Researching Catholic Nuns in the United States. Sunny's book Story of My Life: A Workbook for Preserving Your Legacy is now in its 2nd edition. She is an instructor for GRIP Genealogy Institute, the Salt Lake Institute of Genealogy, and Family Tree University.


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PLEASE REGISTER for this event on the CVGS website at  (https://chulavistagenealogysociety.wildapricot.org/event-6769224).  

An event email and reminders will be sent to all CVGS members the week before the event.  A confirmation email will be sent to all those who register with the Zoom link and the last email reminder will be sent on Wednesday morning of the event.

Attendance is free but only 100 Zoom seats are available, so please register soon.

This program will be held online using the Zoom video conferencing platform for Meetings.  It will be hosted by CVGS President Terri Seat. Contact presidentofcvgs@gmail.com if you have problems or register too late for the email.    

Please note that the meeting starts at 12 noon Pacific Time (3 p.m. Eastern time, 2 p.m. Central time, 1 p.m. Mountain time). The Zoom Meeting room will be open by 11:45 a.m. Pacific Time for visiting and helping attendees connect. 

The speaker handout and the program recording are available to CVGS members for one month after this event on the CVGS website "Members" tab.  

NOTE: The Chula Vista Genealogical Society offers an annual membership of $30. Besides the monthly General Meeting with a program speaker on the last Wednesday of each month, there is a monthly Research Group meeting on second Wednesdays on Zoom, an in-person Education meeting on third Tuesdays, and a Family History Roundtable meeting on third Wednesdays on Zoom, all at 12 noon Pacific time.  There is also a monthly 8 to 10 page email newsletter chock full of program announcements, research tips, helpful links, and useful articles.

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Disclosure: I am a lifetime member of the Chula Vista Genealogical Society, a former Treasurer (2003-2004), Vice-President Programs (2005-2006), President (2007-8), and am currently the Research and Queries chairman (since 2003) and Newsletter Editor (since 2009).

Copyright (c) 2026, Randall J. Seaver

Please comment on this post on the website by clicking the URL above and then the "Comments" link at the bottom of each post. Share it on Twitter, Facebook, or Pinterest using the icons below. Or contact me by email at randy.seaver@gmail.com. All comments are moderated, and may not appear immediately.

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Betty and Fred’s Story: Building a Life Together – December 1944

 Here is the latest chapter in the story of the married life and times of my parents, Fred and Betty (Carringer) Seaver, who married in July 1942. The background information and the list of chapters of their life together are listed at the end of this post.  This is historical fiction with real people and real events, and is how it might have been.

And now we are up to December 1944, now three years into World War II.  Betty and Randy are living with Betty's parents, and Fred is in the U.S. Navy assigned to the Fleet Post Office in San Francisco.  Fred has settled into the rhythm of work, and Betty is now working full-time again. Christmas arrives.

(AI Google Gemini Notebook Infographic - Betty and Fred's Story, December 1944)

Based on the biographies and the earlier stories, I asked Anthropic Claude Sonnet 5 to tell another story - what happened next (I offered some suggestions!)?  


Betty and Fred’s Story – Building a Life Together – December 1944

The Fleet Post Office, December 1944

December came to San Francisco on a cold wind off the bay, and the mail grew heavier every day.

Fred had not understood, before he stood at the sorting tables, how much the Christmas season would weigh. The canvas bags came in by the truckload now, stuffed with packages wrapped in brown paper and tied with kitchen string, each one addressed in a careful hand to some sailor or Marine on a ship halfway across the Pacific. He worked six days a week, and some days the sorting went well into the evening before the bus took him back across the bridge to Treasure Island. He handled every parcel with a little more care than the rules strictly required. Somebody's mother or wife had wrapped each of them.

The routine did not change. Reveille, shower, dress, make the bunk, mess hall, the bus, the tables, lunch, the tables, dinner, the bus back, a little free time, lights out. But between the bags the talk went on, and in December it turned from the war to the lives the war had interrupted. The soft-spoken schoolteacher from Ohio described the classroom where he had taught algebra, and the stubborn boy in the back row who had finally understood a theorem the week before the draft notice came. The streetcar conductor from Oakland talked about his route and the regulars who had ridden it every morning for years. The barrel-chested petty officer from Boston said little about himself until one slow afternoon, when he mentioned a daughter in Dorchester he had not seen in two years, and the tables went quiet for a moment before anyone spoke again.

Fred told them about Rohr, about the nacelles and the drawings and the long evenings tracking parts through the shops, and about Betty and Randy and a house in Chula Vista. They listened the way men listen who are all carrying the same thing. And they talked about the war, because there was no way not to. In the middle of the month the news from Europe turned grim, with the Germans striking hard through the Ardennes and the papers full of the fighting in the snow. It gave a heavier edge to every conversation. Fred read the headlines on the bus and thought of the Pacific, of Leyte, and of the long way yet to go.

On one liberty day early in the month, he took the bus into the city and spent the whole afternoon shopping. He walked up and down the crowded streets in a pea jacket among the Christmas shoppers, and went into more than one store before he found what he wanted. For Betty he chose a silk scarf in a deep blue that he thought would suit her, and a small music box that played a tune she liked. For Randy he found a wooden pull toy, a little duck on wheels that quacked when it rolled, and a soft knitted cap. He had them wrapped by the clerks, paid for the postage at the post office counter, and mailed the package to Fern Street. On the bus back to the island he realized he was smiling, and that it was the first time in a week.

Fern Street, December 1944

Betty had never worked so hard or been so happy about it.

She taught five days a week now. The district had called her back after her two weeks at Memorial and asked if she would stay, and when the previous teacher resigned in the first week of December, they offered her the position full time. She said yes before she had finished hearing the question. It meant earlier mornings, a stack of papers every evening, and a trip that took two trolleys each way, since she did not drive. She stood at the stop in the half-dark with her satchel and her thermos, and she did not mind it. By the time the second trolley let her off near the school, she was ready, her mind already on the day's lessons.

She taught English and Art, and she taught them well. The classroom, with its worn desks and its windows full of winter light, felt more like hers every day. The three gifted artists in her afternoon class turned out to have a fourth, a quiet girl who had been hiding her drawings in a notebook. Betty found them and said nothing, and the next week the notebook was open on the girl's desk.

On the first Saturday of December she took the day for herself and went downtown to Marston's. The store was bright and crowded, and the department floors were thick with shoppers. She moved through them with a list in her head and a pencil in her hand. She bought gifts for the family, a handsome scarf for her mother, a pair of gloves for her father, a book for Georgia, a new pipe tamper for Austin. For Fred she chose a leather writing case, with places for stationery and pens and a pocket for letters, because she knew how many he wrote and how much they mattered. She asked the clerk to wrap it for mailing. Then she carried it down the street to the post office and stood in line with the other mothers and wives, until the clerk stamped the package and it went into the bin that would carry it north to a man she loved.

Randy, in the meantime, had become a creature of habit. Every morning, as soon as Betty left, he looked for Emily and her coat, and then they were off together to the Piggly Wiggly on Juniper Street. He rode in the cart, he waved at the clerks, he took a great interest in the canned goods, and he came home with a small treat he had not been asked to earn. The rest of the day belonged to the backyard and the greenhouse. Georgia kept him company among the flower beds, and Lyle, when he came home, carried him down the rows of seedlings and the fish pond, naming each thing as they passed as though Randy were taking notes.

On Sundays, Austin came to dinner. He was ninety-one now, white-haired and bent but still sharp-eyed, and he arrived every week in his good coat, steadied by Lyle's arm. Randy waited at the door. The moment Austin settled into his chair, Randy was at his knee, hands up, and Austin lifted him with a groan and a grin. The mustache was tweaked, the table rocked with laughter, and the old man's eyes were bright as a boy's. It was clear to everyone that the affection ran both ways. Betty watched them from the kitchen doorway with a feeling she could not quite put a name to, and later she drew them, the old man and the child, head to head.

The invitations came the weeks before Christmas. The Chamberlains asked them to dinner first, and Marshall, Dorothy, Emily and Marcia marveled at Randy’s walking and attempt to talk. Randy discovered Dorothy’s harp and she showed him how to finger the strings to make music notes. Marshall took him out in the back yard to see the fish pond and they rode the swinging couch. Betty enjoyed talking about her school teaching. The next week, the Lyons hosted, and the house on that evening was warm and loud with sorority sisters and their families, babies on every lap and the smell of roast in the air. with the Lyons baby on the way, and Betty was glad to see how well everyone looked. The news that Rod Steddom had joined the Navy had gone through the circle by then. He was in training, and Eleanor spoke of it lightly, in the way of women who had learned to say hard things lightly. Betty squeezed her hand. Every house on that street had someone out there, or someone about to go, and every kitchen held the same quiet knowledge.

Christmas, 25 December 1944

Christmas that year was quiet, and nobody minded.

There was a small tree in the front room, and a fire, and the radio playing carols low. The package from San Francisco had come the week before, and it sat under the tree with the others, wrapped in the clerks' bright paper. Betty had been tempted to open it early and had not.

Randy woke them at dawn, as every child does, and stood at the end of his crib shouting happily until someone came. By the time the gifts were opened, the front room was knee-deep in wrapping paper. He took to the wooden duck at once, dragging it all around the room, quacking behind him. He wore the knitted cap for the rest of the day, over one eye, and refused every attempt to remove it.

Betty opened the silk scarf and the music box and sat still for a long moment with the music box in her hands. It played the tune she had hoped it would -- “I’ll Be Seeing You” by Bing Crosby. Emily glanced at her and quietly looked away.

It was just the family: Lyle and Emily, Georgia, Austin and his brother Edgar, Betty and Randy. Dinner was the traditional one, a turkey with all the trimmings, Georgia's stuffing, Emily's rolls, the cranberries Betty had made. Austin sat at Lyle's right hand again, and said a few words after grace about Christmases long gone. Lyle carved. There was talk of the Pacific and of the new fighting in Europe, but not too much, and when it flagged Austin lifted Randy onto his knee and the table laughed again. At the end of the evening Lyle took a photograph of the whole family around the tree, setting the camera on the mantel with the timer as before.

It was a quiet, full, grateful day. It was also a day with an empty place in it, and everyone knew it, and no one said so.

Letters, 28 December 1944
Dear Fred,

Merry Christmas, a few days late. We missed you terribly. The scarf is beautiful, and the music box plays "our" song. I opened it at the tree and could hardly speak. Randy adores the duck. He drags it from room to room, quacking, and wears the knitted cap day and night. I couldn't get it off him if I tried.

I have such news. The school has hired me full time. The other teacher left, and they asked me to stay, and of course I said yes. I teach five days a week now, and I take two trolleys each way. I love it more than I can say. I only wish I could tell you about it across a table instead of on a page.

We went to dinner at the Chamberlains and at the Lyons, and the sorority sisters were all there with their babies. Rod Steddom has joined the Navy. He's in training now, and Eleanor is being very brave about it. Randy goes to the Piggly Wiggly every day with Mother and has become something of a celebrity there. On Sundays Grandpa Austin comes to dinner, and the two of them are inseparable. Austin is ninety-one now and so happy with that boy on his knee.

I hope the writing case came safely. I hope you'll use it for a great many letters. We love you and think of you every day.

All my love, Betty
and:
Dear Betty,

Merry Christmas, my love. I hope the package reached you in time. I spent a whole liberty day shopping, and I'm afraid I got a little carried away. I hope the scarf is the right color and that Randy likes the duck. Tell me everything about Christmas morning.

Things here are much as before. I work six days a week, and the mail comes in heavier every day. The bags are full of Christmas now. I handle each one carefully, because I know somebody's mother wrapped it. The men at the tables have become real friends. We talk about the war in the evenings, and about what we did before it, and about the people at home. I've told them all about you and Randy. They've heard so much about that boy that they feel they know him.

The news from Europe is troubling, and I think of the Pacific constantly. But I try to remember that the mail is a kind of work too. When I sort a bag of Christmas cards for a ship I'll never see, I feel a little more useful.

Please thank your folks for everything. Give Austin my love, and tell Randy that his father is proud of him. I'll see you soon, I hope. Write often.

All my love, Fred
The letters crossed in the mail the week after Christmas, as they always did. Betty's came to Treasure Island in the first days of the new year, and Fred read it at the end of a long shift with the leather writing case open on his knee. Fred's reached Fern Street on a morning when Randy was dragging the duck across the living room floor, and Betty read it aloud to him, quacking in the right places.

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Here is the Google Notebook Video Overview about this time in Betty, Fred and Randy's lives in December 1944 (also on my YouTube channel):  

This story is historical fiction based on real people -- my parents, grandparents, and me -- and a real event in a real place. I don't know the full story of these events -- but this is how it might have been. I hope that it was at least this good! Claude is such a good storywriter! I added some details and corrected some errors in Claude's initial version.

Stay tuned for the next chapter in this family story.

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The AI-assisted ABC Biography of my mother, Betty Virginia (Carringer) Seaver, is in ABC Biography of #3 Betty Virginia (Carringer) Seaver (1919-2002) of San Diego, California. I also  wrote Betty's Story: The First-Year Art Teacher about the start of her teaching career.

The AI-assisted ABC Biography of my father, Frederick Walton Seaver, is in ABC Biography of #2 Frederick Walton Seaver Jr. (1911-1983) of Massachusetts and San Diego, California.  I also wrote Fred's Story: The Three-Day Cross-Country Escape  and Fred's Story: "I Need A Girl" about him coming to San Diego, and wanting a girlfriend.

Here are the previous chapters in this story:

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Links to my blog posts about using Artificial Intelligence are on my Randy's AI and Genealogy page. Links to AI information and articles about Artificial Intelligence in Genealogy by other genealogists are on my AI and Genealogy Compendium page.

Copyright (c) 2026, Randall J. Seaver

The URL for this post is:  

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Saturday, October 24, 2026

Saturday Night Genealogy Fun -- An Ancestor Who Lived Through a Major Historical Event

 Calling all Genea-Musings Fans: 

 It's Saturday Night again - 

time for some more Genealogy Fun!!



Here is your assignment if you choose to play along (cue the Mission Impossible music, please!):


1)  Discuss "An Ancestor Who Lived Through a Major Historical Event" — Pick one ancestor who was alive during a war, pandemic, natural disaster, or economic upheaval. 

2)  What do the records tell you about how it affected them?

3)  Share your selected ancestor,  the historical event, and the records in your own blog post, or in a comment on this blog post, or write a Substack post, Facebook Note, or in some other social media system.  Please leave a comment with a link on this post so others can find it.

Thaqnk you to Linda Stufflebean for this SNGF challenge.

Here's mine:

 My selected ancestor is Isaac Seaver (1823-1901).  His biography is in ABC Biography of #16 Isaac Seaver (1823-1901) of Massachusetts.

The selected event is the United States Civil War (1861-1865). 

In the 1860s, Isaac was married, a father of five, a blacksmith by trade. residing in Westminster, Massachusetts. He enlisted in the Union Army on 10 August 1864 as a Private in Company H, 4th Regiment of Massachusetts Heavy Artillery. As a blacksmith, he tended with the horses pulling the artillery wagons.  He mustered out of the Army on 17 June 1865 in Washington, DC, and went back to Massachusetts to live out his life.

Isaac Seaver applied for a pension on 11 June 1892. His Civil War Pension File is 81 pages, and some of the most interesting records are listed and transcribed in Treasure Chest Thursday - Isaac Seaver's Civil War Pension File: Compendium of Posts.  The file includes many records about his health:  Isaac's description of his ailments in August 1892 were, as recorded by the examining physician:

"He has varicose veins on both legs from ankle up, grown worse during past few years.  Left leg is worse than right.  He never had much rheumatism, has it in knees and back.  He is short breathed on exertion.  He has to pass his water frequently at night and it pains him in its passage.  He had carbuncle on back of neck 5 years ago and back of head is numb."

In August 1892, the examining physician described Isaac's ailments as:  

"Upon examination we find the following objective conditions: Pulse rate, 90, 96, 108; respiration: 18, 24; temperature, 98.6; height, 5 feet 10 inches; weight, 163 pounds; age, 69 years.  His muscles are rather small and soft, eyes, skin and tongue normal.  Find varicose veins of both ankles over tops of feet, and up the legs, quite extensive but not large, four eighteenths.  He has no rheumatism now, nothing. Cardiac area is enlarged, apex 5 and 6 nipple line, impulse diffused, action excitable, very irregular, three eighteenths. Find scar, 3 1/2" inch, much contracted, puckered and hard, four eighteenths.  Examination of urine is negative, kidneys, nothing.  Prostate is normal.  No other disability is found to exist."

He was awarded a pension of $8 a month for his service (8/18ths) because of the varicose veins in his legs, heart problems, urinary tract problems, and a 3.5 inch scar on his back (the carbuncle?).  

I asked the free AI tool Google Gemini 3 to describe in laymen's terms the examining physicians summaey.  Gemini told me:
Based on the examining physician's notes from Isaac Seaver’s Civil War Pension File in August 1892 (when he was 69 years old), here is a plain-English breakdown of what the doctor found during his physical exam.
Vital Signs & General Appearance

* Heart Rate / Pulse (90, 96, 108 beats per minute): His heart rate was elevated throughout the examination. A normal resting pulse is between 60 and 100 bpm. His pulse was fluctuating and running high, which fits with the doctor's later notes about his heart being "excitable" (likely due to anxiety/stress during the exam or an underlying heart condition).
* Breathing Rate (18–24 breaths per minute): Normal resting respiration is typically 12 to 20 breaths per minute. His breathing was slightly fast, especially at 24.
* Body Temperature (98.6°F): Completely normal—no fever.
* Build (5'10", 163 lbs, age 69): He was a man of average-to-tall height for his era, with a lean to healthy weight.
* Muscles: Described as "rather small and soft," indicating mild muscle loss or reduced strength typical for a 69-year-old man, or perhaps reflecting reduced physical activity.
* Eyes, Skin, & Tongue: All appeared healthy and normal—no signs of jaundice, severe anemia, dehydration, or systemic infection visible on his skin or mouth.

Heart & Cardiovascular Health

* Enlarged Heart (Cardiomegaly): The doctor notes his "cardiac area is enlarged" and the heart's point of maximum impulse (apex) was pushed down/out (at the 5th and 6th rib, aligned with his nipple line). This means his heart muscle had enlarged, often caused by long-term high blood pressure, valve issues, or heavy physical strain over a lifetime.
* Irregular & Excitable Heartbeat: The impulse was "diffused, action excitable, very irregular." His heart wasn't beating with a steady, strong rhythm. Instead, it was fluttering, skipping beats, or beating erratically—what modern doctors might diagnose as an arrhythmia or "Atrial Fibrillation (A-Fib).
* Varicose Veins: He had extensive varicose veins across both ankles, the tops of his feet, and running up his legs. While extensive, the doctor noted they weren't overly bulging or dangerous ("not large").

Injury / Surgical Scar

* 3½-Inch Scar: He had a prominent, 3.5-inch long scar that was "much contracted, puckered and hard." This indicates a deep, healed wound—possibly a severe injury, bullet wound, or surgical incision from his military service or labor. Because it was "puckered and hard," it healed with dense scar tissue that had drawn the skin tight.

Systemic & Kidney Health

* Urine & Kidneys ("Negative / Nothing"): A very good sign for a 69-year-old man at the time. His urine showed no signs of protein, sugar (diabetes), or blood, meaning his kidneys were functioning well.
* Prostate: Normal—he did not have the urinary blockages or enlarged prostate issues common in older men.
* Rheumatism ("No rheumatism now"): He showed no current active joint inflammation or severe arthritic crippling at the time of this exam.

What Do the Fractions Mean? ("three eighteenths", "four eighteenths")

In the Civil War pension system (administered by the U.S. Pension Bureau), doctors used a standardized rating scale out of "18ths" (based on $18/month, which was the standard total disability rate for inability to perform manual labor):

* Heart condition ("three eighteenths" = 3/18): Assigned a minor-to-moderate disability rating (~16% disabled) for his heart enlargement and irregular rhythm.
* Varicose veins ("four eighteenths" = 4/18}: Assigned a moderate rating (~22% disabled) for the extensive circulation issues in his legs.
* Scar ("four eighteenths" = 4/18): Assigned a moderate rating for the physical impairment or tissue damage caused by his major scar.

Summary

Isaac was in remarkably solid overall health for a 69-year-old Civil War veteran—his kidneys, prostate, eyes, and joints were in great shape. His primary health challenges were an "enlarged, irregular-beating heart", significant "varicose veins" in his lower legs, and a "deep, tightly healed scar" from an old injury.
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The URL for this post is:  https://www.geneamusings.com/2026/10/saturday-night-genealogy-fun-ancestor.html

Copyright (c) 2026, Randall J. Seaver

Please comment on this post on the website by clicking the URL above and then the "Comments" link at the bottom of each post. Share it on X, Facebook, or Pinterest using the icons below. Or contact me by email at randy.seaver@gmail.com. Note that all comments are moderated, and may not appear immediately.

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Ask AI: Two Genealogy Truths and Judging Certainty

What are the "Truths" about genealogy and family history research that we are not ready to hear about?  I had no clue when I thought about this, so I asked OpenAI ChatGPT5 for an answer and got it. Then I asked for a second Truth and received that too. That one centered on metrics to judge how "certain" a researcher should be about records for a specific life event.  


(Google Gemini Notebook Infographic - Genealogy Truths and Certainty)

Here is my discussion with ChatGPT5:

A)  Prompt: If you could tell us ONE truth we’re not ready to hear about genealogy research, what would it be?

OpenAI ChatGPT5 response:


If I could tell genealogists one truth they may not be ready to hear, it would be this: 
"You will probably never know the whole truth about your ancestors—and your job is not to fill the gaps with the most plausible story. Your job is to become comfortable with the gaps."
Genealogy trains us to expect an answer. A birth date should lead to parents; parents should lead to grandparents; a census should tell us where someone lived; DNA should eventually break the brick wall.

But sometimes the records simply do not exist. Sometimes they existed but were destroyed. Sometimes an ancestor deliberately concealed something. Sometimes several records contradict one another. And sometimes the evidence will never allow us to distinguish between two reasonable possibilities.

The dangerous moment comes when we say:
"This is probably what happened."
—and gradually begin treating probably as proven.

That's especially tempting with brick-wall ancestors. We find a family that fits the age, location, naming pattern, DNA evidence and historical circumstances. Everything seems to line up. We build the connection into the tree, write the biography, and five years later we've forgotten that the original conclusion was only a hypothesis.

The mature genealogist learns to say:
"I don't know."
And even better:
"Here is what I know, here is what I suspect, here is the evidence for it, here is the evidence against it, and here is what would have to be discovered to change my mind."
That isn't failure.

That's good genealogy.

And perhaps the hardest part: an honest unknown is more valuable than a beautiful, completely documented-looking fiction.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

B)  Prompt: What is a second truth?

OpenAI ChatGPT5 response:

Here's the second truth, and this one may sting a little: 
"Most of the genealogy research you do will never actually change your family tree."
We spend enormous amounts of time searching for the elusive record—the marriage record, the missing census, the maiden name, the parents of the brick-wall ancestor. And sometimes we find it. But much of genealogy is actually confirming what we already know, eliminating possibilities, documenting existing facts, and discovering that the record we desperately want simply isn't there.

That doesn't mean the research was wasted.

In fact, some of the most valuable genealogy work produces negative results:
  • The record isn't in the county where you expected it.
  • The supposed parents aren't supported by the evidence.
  • The family wasn't living where the online tree says they were.
  • The DNA match doesn't actually fit the proposed relationship.
  • The "obvious" person turns out to be the wrong person.
A 20-year search ends with: "There is insufficient evidence to determine who her parents were."

And here's the uncomfortable part:
A carefully documented conclusion that you cannot prove something may be a greater accomplishment than finding a new ancestor.
Genealogists sometimes measure progress by names added.

I think a better measure is certainty gained.

You might spend three hours researching one person and add nobody to your tree—but eliminate four incorrect possibilities and establish exactly what records have been searched. That's progress.

And for someone with a huge tree, there's an even bigger lesson:
The goal isn't to make your family tree bigger. It's to make the tree you already have more trustworthy.
That's a truth worth putting on a genealogy conference T-shirt.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

C)  Prompt: How can I achieve certainty for a specific event for a person? How do I determine when they were born, died, buried, married, etc.? What metric should I use?

OpenAI ChatGPT5 response:

I would make one important distinction:
"You cannot achieve mathematical certainty in genealogy. You can achieve a defensible level of confidence."
The traditional framework for that is the Genealogical Proof Standard (GPS). It calls for reasonably exhaustive research, complete citations, analysis and correlation of evidence, resolution of conflicts, and a written conclusion. National Genealogical Society

But for your day-to-day work in a large family tree, I think you need something more practical than simply "GPS: yes/no."

I'd use a 5-level "Genealogical Confidence" scale: 


And I would add a sixth status:
0 — Unknown.
That's important. Unknown is not the same as probably X.

Apply the scale to each fact separately


This is the part I think could really improve your RootsMagic research.

Don't ask: 
"How certain am I about Devier James Lamphier Smith?"
Ask:
"How certain am I about each fact concerning Devier James Lamphier Smith?"
For example:
Now you've got something much more meaningful than a tree full of green checkmarks.

How do you decide the confidence number? 
I'd use four questions.

1. How close is the evidence to the event?


A record created at or near the event by someone with firsthand knowledge generally deserves more weight than a later recollection or an unsourced compiled tree. FamilySearch's guidance similarly emphasizes considering who created the record, when it was created, who supplied the information, and whether it is original, derivative, or authored. FamilySearch

For example:
  • Birth
  • Contemporary birth record
  • Baptismal record close to birth
  • Family Bible created contemporaneously
  • Marriage record giving age/birthplace
  • Census
  • Death certificate
  • Obituary
  • Later family history
  • Online family tree
That's not an absolute ranking—the circumstances matter—but it's a useful starting point.

2. How many independent pieces of evidence agree?


One excellent record can be powerful. But independent agreement is gold.

Suppose you have:
  • 1839 birth record
  • 1850 census giving age 11
  • 1860 census giving age 21
  • 1861 marriage record giving age 22
  • 1870 census giving age 30
  • 1875 census giving age 35
  • 1880 census giving age 41
  • 1885 census giving age 46
  • 1889 newspaper article stating 1839 birth
  • obituary giving the same birthplace
That's considerably stronger than simply having six Ancestry hints that all ultimately derive from the same original record.

The key word is independent. Ten online trees repeating the same incorrect date aren't ten pieces of evidence. They're one piece of evidence wearing ten different hats.

3. Is there contradictory evidence?


This is where serious genealogy separates itself from "I found a record, so I added it."

Suppose:
  • 1850 census: age 11 → about 1839
  • 1860 census: age 21 → about 1839
  • 1870 census: age 30 → about 1840
  • 1880 census: age 41 → about 1839
  • 1889 article: says 1839
  • 1889 Bible entry: says 1842
  • 1894 Obituary: says 1842
  • Death record: says 1842
I wouldn't average them and say 1840.5.

I'd ask:
  • Why do the Bible, obituary and death record disagree with the census data?
  • Who provided the information? When? Was that person actually present at the birth? Could the age have been calculated incorrectly?
  • The GPS specifically requires contradictory evidence to be addressed rather than ignored. NGS Monthly
4. Could another person fit the evidence?

This is the question I would add to your normal research routine:
"What evidence would convince me that I have the wrong person?"
That's enormously useful.

If you have Devier Smith born about 1839 in Henderson, New York, ask:
  • Are there other Devier Smiths of approximately the same age in Henderson or neighboring communities?
  • If there are none, your identification gets stronger.
  • If there are three, your burden of proof gets much higher.
FamilySearch makes essentially this point in its guidance on identifying whether a record belongs to a particular person: don't rely on the name alone; compare dates, places, relationships and other identifying characteristics. FamilySearch

And here's my favorite metric:

If you want one number for your own research management, I'd use:

Confidence = Evidence − Contradiction − Alternatives

Not as literal mathematics, but as a disciplined way of thinking.

Imagine you are evaluating:
"Devier James Lamphier Smith was born 7 May 1839 in Henderson, Jefferson County, New York."
You might write:

Evidence supporting:
  • Later records give 1839.
  • The reported birthplace is consistent.
  • His adoption circumstances fit the known timeline.
  • DNA evidence potentially connects him to the Lanfear family.
Contradictions:
  • Some later records suggest 1842.
  • No discovered birth record provides a birth year or establishes his parents.
Alternatives:
  • He could have been born in 1839.
  • He could have been born in 1842.
  • He could belong to a different Lanfear family.
  • His biological parentage could remain unidentified.
Then you don't force the evidence into a binary "yes/no."

You might conclude:

Birth year 1839 — Confidence 3 (Probable).

Evidence supports 1839, but conflicting later evidence for 1842 prevents treating the date as established.

And:

Biological parents — Confidence 0 (Unknown).

The DNA and circumstantial evidence make the proposed Lanfear connection plausible, but the available evidence does not yet establish the parentage.

That is a much more honest tree.

One other thing I'd change


I wouldn't give an ancestor an overall "confidence score" such as 87%. That creates a false precision.

Instead, I'd use words + evidence:
  • Proven
  • Highly probable
  • Probable
  • Possible
  • Speculative
  • Unknown
Then explain why.

The GPS itself is deliberately a process for reaching credible conclusions rather than a numerical scoring system. National Genealogical Society

So, for your genealogy, I'd adopt this rule:
Every important fact gets its own confidence assessment, and every confidence assessment is supported by evidence.
That gives you something extremely useful when you're dealing with 75,000+ people: you don't have to prove every fact to the same standard.

A birth date copied from a contemporary civil registration may need little additional work.

The supposed parents of a colonial-era brick-wall ancestor may require a full proof argument.

And sometimes the correct conclusion really is:
"Parents unknown after reasonably exhaustive research."
That's not an unfinished genealogy.

That's a finished research conclusion.

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The Google Gemini Notebook Video Overview of this story is on my YouTube channel, and below: 

These concepts are not original or unknown. The Genealogical Proof Standard helps us judge certainty. In addition, Yvette Hoitink created a "Level Up" metric system to judge certainty (see Six Levels of Ancestral Profiles – Level-up Challenge!).  

Steve Little has embodied many of these ideas in his Genealogy Research Assistant AI prompt -- see https://chatgpt.com/g/g-69701d25d61c819192c2db4589b366d9-genealogical-research-assistant.

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Links to my blog posts about using Artificial Intelligence are on my Randy's AI and Genealogy page. Links to AI information and articles about Artificial Intelligence in Genealogy by other genealogists are on my AI and Genealogy Compendium page.


Copyright (c) 2026, Randall J. Seaver

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